The Juneau School District is looking at falling enrollment as it works on next school year’s budget, which could translate into losing two to three teachers.
A prediction of students in kindergarten to 12th grades helps the district determine revenue coming from the state and local government.
Economist Gregg Erickson says the number will likely drop by 78 from this year’s enrollment of 4,734.
To make a projection, Erickson looks at current enrollment. Another important factor is employment. Erickson says in the last two years, Juneau lost 535 jobs.
“The biggest loss in percentage terms and also in absolute numbers was in local government, which includes Native corporations, school districts and in our case, Juneau’s case, includes the hospital,” says Erickson.
Local goverment represents almost 30 percent of the jobs lost. Federal jobs represent about 25 percent. The rest of the loss was in private sector service jobs and in the production of goods in the private sector. Erickson gets his figures from the Department of Labor and Workforce Development.
Enrollment has been trending down in the last few years. Erickson forecasts the number of students continuing to decrease, but at a slower rate.
“I show it bottoming out with enrollment reaching its low point in 2017 and climbing slowly after that,” Erickson says.
The district will start working on the budget with principals and school site councils next month.
