Nome could see Iditarod champ as early as Tuesday afternoon

Updated | 2:11 p.m. Tuesday

Mitch Seavey’s speed continues to exceed expectations. With Seavey out of the Safety checkpoint at 1:10 p.m. Tuesday, an arrival in Nome as early as 3:30–4 p.m. is now possible.

Original story | noon Tuesday

Nome may be less than 24 hours away from its 2017 Iditarod finish.

Assuming no unexpected complications or changes in his pace, Mitch Seavey could arrive under the Burled Arch as this year’s Iditarod champion by about 7 p.m. Tuesday — perhaps slightly earlier.

The elder Seavey, currently Iditarod’s race leader, departed the Elim checkpoint at 6:13 p.m. Monday with 12 dogs, having spent two hours 47 minutes resting there.

A good rule of thumb for approximating an Iditarod champion’s finish is to add 24 hours to his or her departure from Elim.

This would, therefore, place Mitch Seavey in Nome at about 6:15 p.m. Tuesday.

Another, slightly more complicated means of reckoning places Mitch Seavey in Nome around the same time.

In 2015, when the Iditarod ran the same route as this year, Dallas Seavey, the eventual champion, arrived in Elim at 11:51 p.m. on the Monday a week after the race start. This year,

Mitch Seavey arrived in Elim about eight and a half hours earlier than Dallas in 2015. Both men — Dallas in 2015, Mitch in 2017 — rested in Elim for about 3 hours. If Mitch Seavey matches his son’s 2015 pace from Elim to Nome — which may be a reasonable guess, given that both Seaveys have similar mushing mentalities, similar dogs and, of course, come from shared mushing backgrounds — we might expect Mitch to arrive eight and a half hours earlier than Dallas did, which would place him in Nome at 7:45 p.m. Tuesday (8.5 hours earlier than Dallas’ 2015 arrival at 4:15 a.m. Wednesday).

Nome could see an early evening finish 6:15-7:45 p.m.

Of course, these estimates assume the absence of unpredictable factors like strong winds or other disruptions on the trail to Nome.

Certain areas near Safety, such as Topkok and “the Blowhole,” are especially notorious for their unpredictable, sometimes-suddenly-blustery weather.

Such a storm — in a remarkable series of events — derailed the Iditarod run of Jeff King in 2014, pushing Aliy Zirkle to second and giving Dallas Seavey the first of his (so far) three-in-a-row Iditarod victories.

But if Mitch Seavey’s current pace continues, the 2017 race seems to be his to win or lose. And if he does win, Nome might expect him around dinnertime Tuesday.

You can follow Alaska Public Media’s Iditarod coverage here, or listen to the Iditapod podcast below: