Scientists have produced the first data indicating that a variant that has raised alarm is unlikely to pose a big new COVID-19 threat.
Four preliminary laboratory studies released over the weekend found that antibodies from previous infections and vaccinations appear capable of neutralizing the variant, known as BA.2.86.
“It is reassuring,” says Dr. Dan Barouch, who conducted one of the studies at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston.
When it was first spotted, BA.2.86 set off alarm bells. It contains more than 30 mutations on the spike protein the virus uses to infect cells. That’s a level of mutation on par with the original Omicron variant, which caused a massive surge.
The concern was BA.2.86, while still rare, could sneak around the immunity people had built up and cause another huge, deadly wave.
“When something heavily mutated comes out of nowhere … there’s this risk that it’s dramatically different and that it changes the nature of the pandemic,” says Benjamin Murrell, who conducted one of the other studies at the Karolinska Institute in Sweden.
But Murrell and Barouch’s experiments, along with similar studies conducted by Yunlong Richard Cao at Peking University in China and by Dr. David Ho at Columbia University in New York, indicate BA.2.86, is unlikely to be another game-changer.
“It’s reassuring that this is not a variant that’s going to pose a huge problem for our soon-to-be-released vaccines,” Ho says. “At least from this perspective, it’s not as threatening as feared.”
Murrell agrees.
“For BA.2.86 the initial antibody neutralization results suggest that history is not repeating itself here,” Murrell says. “Its degree of antibody evasion is quite similar to recently circulating variants. It seems unlikely that this will be a seismic shift for the pandemic.”
The studies indicate that BA.2.86 doesn’t look like it’s any better than any of the other variants at evading the immune system. In fact, it appears to be even be less adept at escaping from antibodies than other variants. And may also be less efficient at infecting cells.
“BA.2.86 actually poses either similar or less of an immune escape risk compared with currently circulating variants, not more,” Barouch says. “So that is good news. It does bode well for the vaccine.”
Moderna released a statement Wednesday saying the company has data indicating its new shot produces a strong immune response to BA.2.86.
The Food and Drug Administration is expected to approve new vaccines soon that target a more recent omicron subvariant than the original shots. And the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention would then recommend who should get them.
While that subvariant, XBB.1.5, has already been replaced by others, it’s a close enough match for the new shots to protect people, scientists say.
“I wish the booster was already out,” says Dr. Peter Hotez of the Baylor College of Medicine and Texas Children’s Hospital, noting that yet another wave of infections has already begun increasing the number of people catching the virus and getting so sick that they’re ending up in the hospital and dying. “We need it now.”
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Transcript :
ARI SHAPIRO, HOST:
Today, we have some good news about the pandemic. New data indicate that a variant that has raised alarm is unlikely to pose a big, new threat. NPR health correspondent Rob Stein has the details.
ROB STEIN, BYLINE: When scientists first spotted the new variant, known as BA.2.86, it set off alarm bells, even though it’s rare. That’s because BA.2.86 had mutated like crazy – on par with the original omicron, which caused a massive surge – raising fears BA.2.86 could sneak around the immunity people had from all their infections and vaccinations and cause yet another huge, deadly wave. Ben Murrell has been studying the variant at the Karolinska Institute in Sweden.
BEN MURRELL: When something heavily mutated comes out of nowhere, and there’s a lot of uncertainty, and there’s this risk that it’s dramatically different, then it changes the nature of the pandemic.
STEIN: But the first studies to analyze how well our immunity can neutralize the variant came out over the weekend and indicate BA.2.86 is unlikely to be another game-changer. At least four preliminary laboratory experiments all found that antibodies people have in their blood from getting vaccinated or infected with one of the more common variants that are already circulating widely can effectively block BA.2.86.
MURRELL: For BA.2.86, the initial antibody neutralization results suggest that history is not repeating itself here. Its degree of antibody evasion is quite similar to recently circulating variants, and it seems unlikely that this will be a seismic shift for the pandemic.
STEIN: Because, it turns out, BA.2.86 doesn’t look like it’s any better than any of the other variants at evading the immune system. In fact, it appears to be even less adept at escaping from antibodies than other variants and may also be less efficient at infecting cells. Dr. Dan Barouch has been studying the variant at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston.
DAN BAROUCH: BA.2.86 actually poses either similar or less of an immune escape risk compared with current circulating variants, not more. So that is good news. That is reassuring. It does bode well for the vaccine.
STEIN: The Food and Drug Administration is expected to approve new vaccines soon that target a more recent omicron subvariant than the original shots, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will then recommend who should get them. While that subvariant, called XBB.1.5, has already been replaced by others, it looks like a close enough match to protect people. Dr. Peter Hotez at the Baylor College of Medicine hopes as many people as possible will get the new vaccines as quickly as possible.
PETER HOTEZ: I wish the booster was already out. That’s – my only concern is we need it now.
STEIN: Because yet another wave of infections has already begun, increasing the number of people catching the virus and getting so sick that they’re ending up in the hospital and dying.
Rob Stein, NPR News.
(SOUNDBITE OF STATIK SELEKTAH SONG, “TIME”) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
