Voters cast their ballots at the Anchorage Division of Elections Office on Election Day, November 8, 2022. The polling place served as a an early voting location for districts 1 to 40. (Elyssa Loughlin/Alaska Public Media)
The Alaska Democratic Party is asking a judge to kick a convicted felon serving a 20-year sentence in a New York federal prison off this November’s general election ballot. Eric Hafner is challenging Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola for Alaska’s lone seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Hafner placed sixth in the top-four primary. He advanced to the general election ballot after the third- and fourth-place candidates dropped out in an apparent effort to consolidate the Republican vote.
Hafner is currently in federal prison for threatening public officials in New Jersey and has never lived in Alaska. He’s running as a Democrat but does not have the backing of the state party. Any candidate can run under whatever party banner they like under Alaska’s open primary system. The Alaska Democratic Party’s executive director did not respond to an interview request.
The Constitution requires candidates for U.S. House to live in the state they seek to represent “when elected.” In court filings, the Alaska Democratic Party argued it would be impossible for Hafner to be physically present in Alaska by Election Day, since he’s not slated to be released from prison until 2036.
The Democrats also argue Hafner violated Alaska law by listing the address of a South Dakota mail forwarding service on his candidate filing paperwork rather than his physical address at a medium-security federal prison in New York.
The party says that means he never should have been certified as a candidate in the first place. They also argue that Alaska’s election laws don’t allow the sixth-place candidate to advance to the general election under any circumstances. The Democrats say his presence on the ballot could also siphon voters from Peltola.
“Hafner’s presence on the ballot will damage the competitive prospects of the Alaska Democratic Party’s preferred candidate, Congresswoman Peltola, because it will confuse voters by presenting them with an additional candidate on the ballot who is not entitled to be there and would not be entitled to serve if elected,” attorneys Thomas Amodio and David Fox wrote.
The Alaska Democrats ask an Anchorage judge to order the Division of Elections to remove Hafner from the ballot.
Department of Law spokesperson Patty Sullivan said the Division of Elections “followed Alaska Law and the U.S. Constitution when it put Mr. Hafner on the general election ballot.”
Reached at his listed campaign email address, Hafner said he was still familiarizing himself with the lawsuit.
“I don’t know anything about this,” Hafner said, adding that he had limited internet access.
If the judge finds that Alaska law does allow the next candidate in line to move to the general election, seventh-place Republican candidate Gerald Heikes would advance to the November ballot. Heikes was the target of ads paid for by a Democratic group seeking to highlight his anti-abortion stances.
A summary sheet is seen during ballot review on Tuesday, Aug. 27, 2024, at the headquarters of the Alaska Division of Elections in Juneau. (Photo by James Brooks/Alaska Beacon)
When Nick Begich arranged to meet Matt Salisbury at Matanuska Brewing in Eagle River last Thursday, he intended the get-together to be a simple scouting mission.
Salisbury finished fourth in Alaska’s U.S. House primary last month, and Begich, who finished second, wanted to get to know his fellow Republican.
Instead, the hourslong talk over food helped convince Salisbury to quit the race before Monday’s withdrawal deadline.
In an interview Tuesday morning, Salisbury said the talk with Begich wasn’t the only factor in his decision to quit, but as they spoke, he came to realize that Begich’s campaign platform has a lot in common with his own.
“We were able to align some of our views, especially the big ones where I really wanted to see change enacted, especially on bottom trawling,” Salisbury said.
After their meeting, Begich said in a social media post that the two men agree “that we must end bottom trawl practices in Alaska that destroy the seabed ecosystem and impact non-targeted species.”
Begich and Salisbury also agreed on the need to protect Social Security funding and encourage private homeownership.
Begich, through a spokesperson, declined comment for this article, but Bernadette Wilson, senior adviser to Begich’s campaign, helped coordinate the meeting and confirmed the details shared by Salisbury.
The meeting was not to get Salisbury out of the race, she said, and Begich didn’t bring up the topic, something Salisbury confirmed. Wilson had advised Begich to meet with Salisbury as a way to get to know him before the general election campaign began in earnest.
“We did not know Salisbury at all. And so — especially as you head into a general election and you’ve got to rank the other candidates, well, it’s just kind of nice to know who the other Republican is,” Wilson said.
Salisbury has not been active in state politics, did not campaign, and received 0.6% of the vote in the primary.
Begich didn’t offer Salisbury any incentive to get out of the race, both Wilson and Salisbury said.
Other things helped decide his decision to withdraw, Salisbury said, including “a couple really rude experiences” involving Alaska Republicans criticizing his candidacy.
They were critical of the fact that he was running as a Republican but opposed Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy.
After that criticism, Salisbury felt that it would be dishonest to continue identifying as a Republican candidate if he wasn’t willing to support the party leader.
“I just couldn’t really bring myself to continue on this ticket with the way things are nationally right now and the way some people have just acted,” he said.
Under Alaska’s election system, the top four candidates in the primary, regardless of party, advance to the general election.
The third-place finisher, Republican Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, previously withdrew from the race, which allowed the fifth-place finisher, John Wayne Howe of the Alaska Independence Party, to advance to the general election ballot.
Salisbury’s decision means sixth-place finisher, Eric Hafner, advances to the general election as well.
While Salisbury, Howe and Hafner each received less than 1% of the vote in the statewide primary, the maneuvering at the bottom of the top-four ballot will have some impact on Begich and incumbent Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, the frontrunner.
Alaska uses ranked choice voting in the general election, which allows voters to pick multiple candidates, in order of preference.
But Republicans have been less willing to rank multiple candidates, and before the primary, Begich was among the loudest voices urging a unified Republican front.
With Salisbury out of the race, Begich no longer has to worry about a split ticket.
Peltola, on the other hand, now does. While Democrats have been willing to use ranked choice voting, there’s now the possibility that a second Democrat in the race will create a spoiler effect.
If a candidate receives more than 50% of the first-choice votes in the general election, they win without ranked choice voting taking effect. Peltola had 50.89% of the vote share in the primary election.
Top Democrats are wondering how Hafner is even eligible to run.
The U.S. Constitution requires a House candidate to be at least 25 years old, a citizen for at least seven years, and to be an inhabitant of the state “when elected.”
Hafner is expected to be in prison for at least 12 years more, making it all but impossible for him to come to Alaska, if he were to somehow be elected.
“We’re all over here, scratching our heads about how someone who is incarcerated in New York is going to fulfill the constitutional obligation of being in the state on Election Day or to take office,” said Lindsay Kavanaugh, executive director of the Alaska Democratic Party.
Hafner, speaking to KRBD-FM radio before the primary election, said that if he were elected, he believes he would be set free from prison under federal “compassionate release” laws.
“Whether he would be in Alaska when elected is a question that would be answered at that time,” said Alaska Division of Elections director Carol Beecher. “We don’t know if he would be in the state or not.”
Informed of the state’s position, Kavanaugh said, “That is completely nonsensical.”
A summary sheet is seen during ballot review on Tuesday, Aug. 27, 2024, at the headquarters of the Alaska Division of Elections in Juneau. (Photo by James Brooks/Alaska Beacon)
Turnout in this year’s state primary election is on pace to be the third lowest in the past 50 years, according to preliminary figures published Tuesday by the Alaska Division of Elections.
Though final certified results aren’t expected until at least Sunday, most ballots have been received and counted.
Through Tuesday evening, 106,208 votes had been counted from just over 17.5% of all registered voters.
This chart, using figures from the Alaska Division of Elections, shows the voter turnout percentage with the line and the number of ballots cast with the bars in each primary election since 1974. The 2024 figure is preliminary. (James Brooks/Alaska Beacon)
Four years ago, Alaskans approved a new elections system that includes an open primary election in which candidates from all parties compete in the same race for each statewide office. The top four vote-getters advance to the general election.
Opponents of the change have succeeded in placing a repeal measure on the November ballot, and some have claimed that the new system is to blame for this year’s low turnout.
A look at the past 50 years’ worth of primary elections points to another potential culprit: a boring ballot.
This year’s primary election is the first since 2000 to have no ballot measures, no governor’s race and no race for U.S. Senate.
In 2000, barely 15% of voters participated in the primary, causing the Anchorage Daily News editorial page to proclaim that turnout was “mighty poor.”
Voters “saw little reason to hit the polls,” the paper reported.
In 2016, Sen. Lisa Murkowski was on the primary ballot, but with no ballot measures and no governor’s race, the result was the second-lowest primary turnout on record.
The state’s burgeoning voter rolls are also a factor in low turnout.
Turnout is the result of simple division — the number of participating voters divided by the number of registered voters.
While the state’s population has plateaued in recent years, the number of registered voters here has risen steadily.
Earlier this year, the Census Bureau estimated that Alaska has 557,899 residents who are at least 18 years old. As of the primary election, the state had 605,482 registered voters, or more than 108% of its voting-age population.
Subtract people who are ineligible to vote — noncitizens and convicted felons in prison, for example — and the state likely has a voter registration rate of more than 110%.
That’s because it’s much easier to register a voter than deregister one.
Alaska has the most transient population in the country, based on the number of people moving into and out of the state each year, and new Alaskans are automatically registered to vote when they get a state driver’s license or apply for the Permanent Fund dividend.
This chart, using data from the Alaska Division of Elections, shows the number of registered voters during each primary election since 1974, noting the start of Permanent Fund dividend automatic voter registration. (James Brooks/Alaska Beacon)
Opting out is possible, but statistics show that relatively few Alaskans take advantage of the opt-out function.
In addition, few Alaskans notify the Division of Elections when they move away, and several states have recently withdrawn from an information-sharing network that notifies elections officials if someone registered in another state.
If a registered voter simply moves away and doesn’t vote in Alaska again, it may take four or more years for that person to be removed from the voter rolls for inactivity.
That combination of factors means the state’s voter rolls are growing, year after year, putting downward pressure on voter turnout rates.
Two years ago, Alaska held a special general election on the same day as the primary election, which gave voters an additional reason to turn out to vote.
In the three statewide primary elections before that one, voter turnout wasn’t significantly different from this year’s election.
Low turnout in August doesn’t mean low turnout in November, however. In 2000, voters turned out in droves after ignoring the polls in November — more than 60% of the state’s registered voters participated in the presidential election that year.
Thus far, there’s no reason to think the pattern will be different this time.
Nick Begich III and Mary Peltola during a lighter moment at a candidates’ forum on Wednesday (James Oh/Alaska Public Media)
Alaska Congresswoman Mary Peltola and challenger Nick Begich III vied for the support of the oil industry at a candidates’ forum Wednesday in Anchorage.
Peltola spoke first. She thanked the moderator, did a mic-check and then drew a breath.
“WILLOW!” she shouted, to applause.
Peltola, a Democrat, repeatedly highlighted her support for that ConocoPhillips project and her work with Alaska’s Republican senators to convince President Biden to green-light the Arctic endeavor. She channeled her predecessor, the late Congressman Don Young. She even dressed the part, with a plaid flannel shirt and Young’s old Alaska-flag bolo tie. She told the audience at the Alaska Oil and Gas Association conference that she had advanced Young’s priorities.
“I’ve opposed this administration’s policies in ANWR and NPRA,” she said, referring to two vast tracts of federal land, “and have gotten North Slope stakeholders, who this administration had ignored, audiences with the most senior leaders at the Department of Interior. And I will always stand up for Alaska and our interests.”
Begich wore the standard Republican uniform of a dark suit and red tie. He also ran for the seat in 2022. He said he’s better able to carry out Young’s legacy.
And I will tell you right now: in the Congress, there will be no better friend to the oil and gas industry in Alaska than I,” he said.
It was the first forum of the year for the two candidates, and the first since Peltola won more than 50% of the vote in last week’s primary. Begich trailed with 27%, but it was enough to convince the third-place finisher, Lt. Gov Nancy Dahlstrom to bow out, to focus Republican support on one lead candidate.
Begich repeatedly called out Peltola for being a Democrat, casting her as being in league with the Biden-Harris administration, and other high-profile Democrats.
“Remember,” he said, “the most important vote that a member takes is for the speaker of the House, and when Mary Peltola votes for the speaker of the House to be a Democrat, she’s signing us up for the Democrat agenda.”
“Western caucus is 106 Republicans and me,” she said.
The candidates were given the moderator’s questions in advance and mostly read their responses. Still, a few sparks flew.
Peltola suggested Begich’s run was more about ambition than public service, noting that he’s never served in elected office and initially filed to run against Rep. Young.
Begich needled Peltola about being away for important House votes. That drew a sharp response.
“I have had a series of tragic things happen in my family,” she said, “and my hope is that in the next two years, my mother and my husband don’t die.”
Peltola’s husband died in a plane crash in mid-September of last year, a few months after her mother’s death. Peltola’s congressional attendance record plunged as she spent time attending funerals and supporting her children and other family members.
Begich and Peltola will appear on the November ranked choice ballot with Republican Matthew Salisbury and John Wayne Howe of the Alaska Independence Party.
Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, a Republican U.S. House candidate, holds a campaign sign at an Eagle River intersection on Aug. 20, 2024, Alaska’s primary election day. With her are several sign-waving supporters. (Photo by Yereth Rosen/Alaska Beacon)
Though a surprise to some observers, her action is part of a larger trend this year: In some races with multiple Republicans, candidates are withdrawing in order to consolidate support behind a single Republican.
It’s a response to the party’s experience two years ago, strategists and candidates say.
In 2022, Democratic U.S. House candidate Mary Peltola defeated Republicans Nick Begich and Sarah Palin. Part of that defeat was due to the fact that many Begich voters either failed to rank anyone second or chose Peltola after Begich was eliminated.
Republicans won several ranked choice legislative elections by narrow margins, but in those races, many Republican voters declined to rank a second Republican, leading to significant numbers of “exhausted” ballots that didn’t contribute to the final margin.
The Republican Party attempted to convince voters to “Rank the Red” in a pre-election campaign, but in the two years since the last election, that approach has been discarded by a significant number of Republicans.
They’re now trying to recreate the state’s old primary elections system — in which only one candidate from a particular party advances to the general election — through voluntary withdrawals.
That strategy is showing up in races where multiple conservative Republicans are running alongside a single Democrat or moderate Republican.
How Alaska votes
In Alaska’s election system, all candidates for an office, regardless of political party, are placed in the same primary election. Voters pick one candidate, and the four candidates with the most votes advance to the general election.
In the general election, voters are asked to rank the candidates in order of preference, one through four, with a fifth option for a write-in, if wanted.
If a candidate receives more than half of the first-preference votes, they win.
If no one receives more than half of the first-preference votes, the lowest finisher is eliminated, and voters who picked that candidate have their votes go for their second preference.
The elimination process continues until one candidate has more than half of the remaining votes.
Presidential elections do not have a top-four primary. Voters in November may be asked to rank more than four candidates for president.
The same day that Dahlstrom withdrew, incumbent Rep. Tom McKay, R-Anchorage, announced that he would be withdrawing from the election for an Anchorage state Senate seat despite finishing second.
McKay and former Republican state Rep. Liz Vazquez are each challenging Sen. Matt Claman, D-Anchorage.
“Me and Liz aren’t that far apart, and I’m a believer — especially after my 2022 race, that having two Republicans in there is not helpful,” McKay said. “And I think Liz really wanted to stay in the race, so I decided I’ll drop out, and I’m going to look for other opportunities.”
That fellow Republican, David Eibeck, got 1,039 votes, and McKay was listed as a second choice on 644 of those ballots. Wells was the second choice for 92 voters. On 303 ballots — almost a third of Eibeck’s voters — there was no second choice, and the ballots were exhausted, not counting for either remaining candidate.
“That tells me right there that you can’t force people to do this ranking business. Some of them, they’re just not going to do it,” McKay said.
He won his race, but he thinks it was closer than it should have been. Under Alaska’s old elections system, only one Republican and one Democrat would have advanced from the primary to the general election, and McKay thinks those Eibeck voters would have gone for him.
This year, his chief of staff, Trevor Jepsen, encouraged candidates to sign pre-election pledges saying that they would drop out if they weren’t the top Republican in the primary.
“The data doesn’t lie; due to exhausted ballots, ‘Rank the Red’ is a losing strategy in tight races,” Jepsen said. “‘One Race, One Republican’ should be the strategy, and it’s good to see our Republican candidates understanding that.”
More withdrawals are expected ahead of the Sept. 2 deadline, but some candidates aren’t waiting.
In the race for Eagle River’s state Senate seat, former Republican Rep. Sharon Jackson has withdrawn and endorsed Jared Goecker, the leading conservative Republican challenger to incumbent moderate Republican Sen. Kelly Merrick.
Jackson is running fifth, but her withdrawal means that if another trailing candidate withdraws, there will be no replacement.
In House District 36, which covers much of Interior Alaska, Republican Cole Snodgress is running third in a six-person race, enough to advance to the general election. But because he’s behind fellow Republican Rebecca Schwanke, he’s withdrawing from the contest.
“Instead of trying to stay in and split up the vote going into the general election, I made that commitment up front with District 36,” he said by phone on Monday. “I said, ‘Hey, if I don’t take first, I’m going to get out of the way and get behind one candidate going into the general election.’”
He’s already sent his withdrawal paperwork into the Division of Elections, he said.
“We both had our fair shot at it, and this is the way that people spoke on it, and we’re just going back to that traditional primary process that we had, except you have to do it through self governance,” Snodgress said.
It isn’t yet clear whether Snodgress’ move will accomplish what he wants. Republican Dana Mock is running fifth in the balloting and didn’t immediately answer a phone call about his intentions.
If Mock doesn’t withdraw, he’ll slide into fourth, leaving the ballot full for the general election.
Rep. Jesse Sumner, R-Wasilla, also announced his withdrawal from the general election last week, but for family reasons rather than strategy.
Sumner supports the current elections system and said it’s not beneficial to have it become a partisan issue.
He thinks it’s a mistake for Republicans to rely on strategic withdrawals ahead of the general election.
“People see that people don’t rank, but that doesn’t mean that they would have voted for the other candidate, or even showed up to vote, or voted downballot if the other candidate was there,” he said. “Oftentimes, they might just not like that other person, you know?”
Matt Salisbury, Republican candidate for Alaska’s U.S. House seat, is seen in an undated photo published by the Alaska Division of Elections. (Alaska Division of Elections)
Five years ago, Matt Salisbury moved to Alaska. Now, the 30-year-old insurance adjuster and moderate Republican is in position to finish among the final four candidates in the race for the state’s lone seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.
As of Thursday evening, Salisbury had 602 votes in Alaska’s primary election, well behind incumbent Democrat Mary Peltola, with 48,590 votes; Republican challenger Nick Begich, with 26,002; and Nancy Dahlstrom, 19,256.
Under Alaska’s election system, that vote differential doesn’t matter: the top four candidates in the primary election advance to November’s general election.
Thousands of absentee and questioned ballots have yet to be counted, but for the moment, Salisbury is in the No. 4 spot, 55 votes ahead of John Wayne Howe, head of the Alaskan Independence Party.
“I don’t know if I would say I was expecting it,” Salisbury said when reached by phone on Thursday morning. “I believed that I would be (in the top four), but I went in with no expectations.”
In his own words
Salisbury answered the Alaska Beacon’s 15-question candidate survey this week. You can read his responses alongside those of the other U.S. House candidates online.
He’s also answered Ballotpedia’s candidate connection survey. See here to read more about his background, including how Sept. 11, 2001, was his first political memory.
Salisbury has identified as Republican since he was 18, he said, and he holds to the traditional Republican Party belief that individual liberty is the best approach to government.
But he also brings a twist to that idea: Individual liberty isn’t possible, he said, without financial liberty. That requires constraining the big businesses that might squash free enterprise.
“It’s no longer free to engage in an enterprise if it’s just held by a few corporations,” he said.
The pending merger of Kroger and Albertsons, two Alaska-based grocery stores, concerns him because it could limit competition and result in higher prices here.
“To truly be a free society, we have to make sure that it’s a fair playing field,” he said.
When Salisbury thinks of great Republicans, he thinks of Abraham Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt, he said.
“At the later point in his career, (Roosevelt) wanted to battle corporations on behalf of the people, and he split from the ticket when the party didn’t want to embrace that change, and I’m not willing to split from the Republican ticket,” Salisbury said.
He said he sees a lot of people use the term RINO, or “Republican in Name Only” for Republicans who don’t follow the party line exactly.
“I want to say I’m not a RINO. I’m a bull moose,” Salisbury said.
Roosevelt ran on the “Bull Moose Party” ticket in 1912, and Salisbury’s website, jointhemoose.com, features a computer-generated picture of Roosevelt riding a bull moose.
Salisbury’s simple three-item platform is aligned with his beliefs: end bottom trawling, properly fund Social Security, and end corporate ownership of single-family homes.
Born in Atlanta in 1993, Salisbury grew up in that city and attended the University of Georgia, majoring in economics.
During that time, wrote a thesis about Alaska’s fishing industry and concluded that the best way to help Alaska’s family fishers and the declining salmon returns is to eliminate bottom trawling and the bycatch that comes with it.
Salisbury supported Peltola two years ago, he said, but he was inspired to run as a candidate this year because he was frustrated with legislation she introduced in May.
Peltola has run as a “pro-fish” candidate, but Salisbury said her approach to trawling isn’t substantial.
He said he doesn’t feel adequately represented by Dahlstrom, who “was picked by the Republican establishment, which I think is just as swampy as everyone else.”
He also doesn’t feel represented by Nick Begich, who comes from a longtime Alaska political family and is personally wealthy.
“He comes from a place of privilege, and how can somebody like that relate to me and the struggle that everyday Alaskans face? I mean, I’m talking to you on my lunch break,” Salisbury said by phone.
The former Georgian arrived in Alaska for the first time in December 2014 after becoming infatuated with stories, movies and other media about the state, including the example of Dick Proenneke.
Salisbury’s arrival in Alaska was unforgettable, he said. “It was my first white Christmas ever.”
He spent the winter in the state, but a family tragedy meant he had to move away.
“But the bug never left,” he said, “and on a hot summer day — 95 degrees — I made the decision that it’s now time to go back to Alaska.”
He returned in 2019, driving 12 days across the United States with his dog, and he’s spent the time since then as an insurance adjuster, traveling across the state.
“It’s been an absolute blessing to be able to go through the Kenai Peninsula, up through the Interior to the Western communities and down to Southeast,” he said.
He bought a starter home in the Matanuska Valley, close to Finger Lakes, and got involved with local groups, including the Elks.
“I love fishing — I’m not very good at catching, though. … There’s something about the fight and then landing one that just really gives you that adrenaline rush. I love hiking and I love live music,” he said.
Reggae is his “bread and butter,” he said, but he likes almost everything.
“You’ll catch me dancing to ‘September’ by Earth, Wind and Fire; Kendrick Lamar; “Pink Pony Club” by Chappell Roan … I just have a very wide taste in what I like,” he said.
Salisbury’s time in Alaska hasn’t been entirely smooth. In 2022, after a “phenomenal first date” in Homer, he was pulled over by police for speeding and charged with drunken driving and possessing a weapon while intoxicated.
“It’s shameful, and I’m not proud of it, but it was a mistake that I made, and I own it,” he said. “I did my punishment, and I’ve got my license back.”
After he sold his starter home in the Mat-Su, Salisbury found it difficult to afford a new house, and even rent was expensive. That experience caused him to oppose corporate homeownership as a way to drive down rent and housing costs.
“I really think that owning property is a way to financial freedom, and I have concerns that we are being pushed into a place where renters are being reduced down to numbers instead of people,” he said.
Salisbury said he’s concerned that the federal government is willing to authorize spending increases for wars, including in the Middle East and Ukraine, but is reluctant to pay for services given to Americans, including Social Security.
“I have a hard time driving through Anchorage and watching people live in tents and go hungry and struggle with mental illness and addiction, and we have no resources for these people,” he said.
When it comes to the presidential race, Salisbury said he isn’t endorsing or backing either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.
He said he thinks it’s important to have the ability to work with people, even if he doesn’t agree with them.
“Those are still Americans, they’re still our neighbors, and we can be respectful when we disagree, and we can work together through problems to make an amiable solution for everybody,” he said.
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