4 Special Coverage

A state judge will rule as soon as Monday whether a man imprisoned in New York state will remain a candidate for Alaska’s lone U.S. House seat.

Eric Hafner, running as a Democrat, was the sixth-place finisher in Alaska’s primary election for U.S. House. However, after two other candidates withdrew, he was promoted to the state’s “final four” in the November election, which will be conducted using ranked choice voting.

The Alaska Democratic Party filed suit on Thursday, arguing that Hafner, who was convicted of threatening public officials, isn’t an eligible candidate under state law and the U.S. Constitution. The party requested an injunction that would require the Alaska Division of Elections to either run the U.S. House election with three candidates or promote the seventh-place finisher, Republican Gerald Heikes.

Getting that injunction will require that the party’s attorneys prove that they’re likely to succeed on the merits of the case and that allowing Hafner to advance will cause greater harm than if he’s replaced.

Anchorage Superior Court Judge Ian Wheeles has scheduled oral arguments in the case for 9 a.m. Monday morning after a whirlwind series of written arguments by attorneys representing the state and the Alaska Democratic Party.

The stakes are high: After Republican Nick Begich became the lone Republican in the race, Cook Political Report — a leading election forecaster — labeled the race a “tossup” between him and incumbent Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola.

Having a second Democrat in the race could cost Peltola some votes against Begich, which might be decisive in a close race, and the results of the race may be significant for control of the U.S. House of Representatives as a whole.

Time is a major factor. Federal law requires that ballots be mailed to international voters no later than Sept. 21. Before doing that, the state needs to finalize and print more than 3,500 ballots and test voting equipment with a draft ballot.

According to an affidavit signed by Alaska Division of Elections director Carol Beecher, a test ballot needs to be available by Wednesday in order to complete testing.

Among the Democratic Party’s arguments is that the U.S. Constitution requires a candidate to be an “inhabitant” of the relevant state “when elected,” and because Hafner isn’t scheduled for release from prison until 2036, that cannot happen.

But in an opposition brief filed Friday morning with the court, attorneys representing the Division of Elections say that the party’s argument falls flat.

“However unlikely these scenarios may be, the Court cannot say — particularly without evidence — whether Mr. Hafner might be released, pardoned, successful on appeal, or otherwise free to become an inhabitant of Alaska some other way,” the brief stated.

Attorneys representing the state said that disqualifying Hafner ahead of time would amount to an additional restriction on who may run for U.S. House, something prohibited under federal caselaw.

Responding to the state’s filing, the party’s attorneys said the prospect of Hafner’s release is a “fanciful projection.”

“There is no evidence that Mr. Hafner has sought a pardon or that there is any proceeding that could possibly result in his release in the next two months,” they wrote.

In addition to the constitutional issue, the party’s attorneys are arguing that the plain language of state law allows the Division of Elections to promote only the fifth-place finisher in cases when a candidate withdraws from the top four.

Responding on Friday, attorneys for the state said that the party is misreading state law and that a candidate becomes a fifth-place finisher when the previous fifth-place finisher gets promoted following a withdrawal.

The party’s attorneys previously argued that Hafner’s candidacy was also invalid under state law because he had listed the address of a mail-forwarding company, rather than his residence, when registering as a candidate.

They dropped that argument on Friday after the Division of Elections shared a copy of Hafner’s registration form, which included an address. The mail-forwarding company’s address was only listed on the election pamphlet.

If the party’s attorneys convince Wheeles that Hafner is not an eligible candidate, they must also convince him that the harm caused by removing Hafner’s name from the ballot is less than the harm from keeping it.

“Mr. Hafner’s presence on the ballot would complicate Plaintiffs’ efforts to reelect Congresswoman Peltola, because it will confuse voters by presenting them with a candidate, putatively a Democrat, who Plaintiffs do not support and who would not be entitled to serve if elected,” the party’s attorneys wrote.

The state is arguing that the limited time available for ballot printing means that the election itself could be delayed if a redesign is needed.

That’s far-fetched, the party’s attorneys argued in writing on Friday, noting that the state’s first mailings are two weeks away, that those ballots are printed in-house, and that the division needed just three days to finalize the ballot design after the primary’s certification on Sept. 1.

Wheeles’ decision, expected on Monday, may not be the final word. Regardless of his decision, it could be appealed to the Alaska Supreme Court on an emergency expedited basis, with a final determination later in the week.

The Alaska Democratic Party is asking a judge to kick a convicted felon serving a 20-year sentence in a New York federal prison off this November’s general election ballot. Eric Hafner is challenging Democratic Congresswoman Mary Peltola for Alaska’s lone seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Hafner placed sixth in the top-four primary. He advanced to the general election ballot after the third- and fourth-place candidates dropped out in an apparent effort to consolidate the Republican vote.

Hafner is currently in federal prison for threatening public officials in New Jersey and has never lived in Alaska. He’s running as a Democrat but does not have the backing of the state party. Any candidate can run under whatever party banner they like under Alaska’s open primary system. The Alaska Democratic Party’s executive director did not respond to an interview request.

The Constitution requires candidates for U.S. House to live in the state they seek to represent “when elected.” In court filings, the Alaska Democratic Party argued it would be impossible for Hafner to be physically present in Alaska by Election Day, since he’s not slated to be released from prison until 2036.

The Democrats also argue Hafner violated Alaska law by listing the address of a South Dakota mail forwarding service on his candidate filing paperwork rather than his physical address at a medium-security federal prison in New York.

The party says that means he never should have been certified as a candidate in the first place. They also argue that Alaska’s election laws don’t allow the sixth-place candidate to advance to the general election under any circumstances. The Democrats say his presence on the ballot could also siphon voters from Peltola.

“Hafner’s presence on the ballot will damage the competitive prospects of the Alaska Democratic Party’s preferred candidate, Congresswoman Peltola, because it will confuse voters by presenting them with an additional candidate on the ballot who is not entitled to be there and would not be entitled to serve if elected,” attorneys Thomas Amodio and David Fox wrote.

The Alaska Democrats ask an Anchorage judge to order the Division of Elections to remove Hafner from the ballot.

Department of Law spokesperson Patty Sullivan said the Division of Elections “followed Alaska Law and the U.S. Constitution when it put Mr. Hafner on the general election ballot.”

Reached at his listed campaign email address, Hafner said he was still familiarizing himself with the lawsuit.

“I don’t know anything about this,” Hafner said, adding that he had limited internet access.

If the judge finds that Alaska law does allow the next candidate in line to move to the general election, seventh-place Republican candidate Gerald Heikes would advance to the November ballot. Heikes was the target of ads paid for by a Democratic group seeking to highlight his anti-abortion stances.

When Nick Begich arranged to meet Matt Salisbury at Matanuska Brewing in Eagle River last Thursday, he intended the get-together to be a simple scouting mission.

Salisbury finished fourth in Alaska’s U.S. House primary last month, and Begich, who finished second, wanted to get to know his fellow Republican.

Instead, the hourslong talk over food helped convince Salisbury to quit the race before Monday’s withdrawal deadline.

Replacing Salisbury is the sixth-place finisher, Eric Hafner. He’s currently serving a 20-year federal prison term in New York state for threatening multiple public officials.

In an interview Tuesday morning, Salisbury said the talk with Begich wasn’t the only factor in his decision to quit, but as they spoke, he came to realize that Begich’s campaign platform has a lot in common with his own.

“We were able to align some of our views, especially the big ones where I really wanted to see change enacted, especially on bottom trawling,” Salisbury said.

The 30-year-old University of Georgia graduate has emphasized his desire for the federal government to ban bottom trawling as a way to restore Alaska’s salmon runs.

After their meeting, Begich said in a social media post that the two men agree “that we must end bottom trawl practices in Alaska that destroy the seabed ecosystem and impact non-targeted species.”

Begich and Salisbury also agreed on the need to protect Social Security funding and encourage private homeownership.

Begich, through a spokesperson, declined comment for this article, but Bernadette Wilson, senior adviser to Begich’s campaign, helped coordinate the meeting and confirmed the details shared by Salisbury.

The meeting was not to get Salisbury out of the race, she said, and Begich didn’t bring up the topic, something Salisbury confirmed. Wilson had advised Begich to meet with Salisbury as a way to get to know him before the general election campaign began in earnest.

“We did not know Salisbury at all. And so — especially as you head into a general election and you’ve got to rank the other candidates, well, it’s just kind of nice to know who the other Republican is,” Wilson said.

Salisbury has not been active in state politics, did not campaign, and received 0.6% of the vote in the primary.

Begich didn’t offer Salisbury any incentive to get out of the race, both Wilson and Salisbury said.

Other things helped decide his decision to withdraw, Salisbury said, including “a couple really rude experiences” involving Alaska Republicans criticizing his candidacy.

They were critical of the fact that he was running as a Republican but opposed Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy.

After that criticism, Salisbury felt that it would be dishonest to continue identifying as a Republican candidate if he wasn’t willing to support the party leader.

“I just couldn’t really bring myself to continue on this ticket with the way things are nationally right now and the way some people have just acted,” he said.

Under Alaska’s election system, the top four candidates in the primary, regardless of party, advance to the general election.

The third-place finisher, Republican Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, previously withdrew from the race, which allowed the fifth-place finisher, John Wayne Howe of the Alaska Independence Party, to advance to the general election ballot.

Salisbury’s decision means sixth-place finisher, Eric Hafner, advances to the general election as well.

While Salisbury, Howe and Hafner each received less than 1% of the vote in the statewide primary, the maneuvering at the bottom of the top-four ballot will have some impact on Begich and incumbent Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, the frontrunner.

Alaska uses ranked choice voting in the general election, which allows voters to pick multiple candidates, in order of preference.

But Republicans have been less willing to rank multiple candidates, and before the primary, Begich was among the loudest voices urging a unified Republican front.

With Salisbury out of the race, Begich no longer has to worry about a split ticket.

Peltola, on the other hand, now does. While Democrats have been willing to use ranked choice voting, there’s now the possibility that a second Democrat in the race will create a spoiler effect.

If a candidate receives more than 50% of the first-choice votes in the general election, they win without ranked choice voting taking effect. Peltola had 50.89% of the vote share in the primary election.

Top Democrats are wondering how Hafner is even eligible to run.

The U.S. Constitution requires a House candidate to be at least 25 years old, a citizen for at least seven years, and to be an inhabitant of the state “when elected.”

Hafner is expected to be in prison for at least 12 years more, making it all but impossible for him to come to Alaska, if he were to somehow be elected.

“We’re all over here, scratching our heads about how someone who is incarcerated in New York is going to fulfill the constitutional obligation of being in the state on Election Day or to take office,” said Lindsay Kavanaugh, executive director of the Alaska Democratic Party.

Hafner, speaking to KRBD-FM radio before the primary election, said that if he were elected, he believes he would be set free from prison under federal “compassionate release” laws.

“Whether he would be in Alaska when elected is a question that would be answered at that time,” said Alaska Division of Elections director Carol Beecher. “We don’t know if he would be in the state or not.”

Informed of the state’s position, Kavanaugh said, “That is completely nonsensical.”

Turnout in this year’s state primary election is on pace to be the third lowest in the past 50 years, according to preliminary figures published Tuesday by the Alaska Division of Elections.

Though final certified results aren’t expected until at least Sunday, most ballots have been received and counted.

Through Tuesday evening, 106,208 votes had been counted from just over 17.5% of all registered voters.

Alaska Congresswoman Mary Peltola and challenger Nick Begich III vied for the support of the oil industry at a candidates’ forum Wednesday in Anchorage.

Peltola spoke first. She thanked the moderator, did a mic-check and then drew a breath.

“WILLOW!” she shouted, to applause.

Peltola, a Democrat, repeatedly highlighted her support for that ConocoPhillips project and her work with Alaska’s Republican senators to convince President Biden to green-light the Arctic endeavor. She channeled her predecessor, the late Congressman Don Young. She even dressed the part, with a plaid flannel shirt and Young’s old Alaska-flag bolo tie. She told the audience at the Alaska Oil and Gas Association conference that she had advanced Young’s priorities.

“I’ve opposed this administration’s policies in ANWR and NPRA,” she said, referring to two vast tracts of federal land, “and have gotten North Slope stakeholders, who this administration had ignored, audiences with the most senior leaders at the Department of Interior. And I will always stand up for Alaska and our interests.”

Begich wore the standard Republican uniform of a dark suit and red tie. He also ran for the seat in 2022. He said he’s better able to carry out Young’s legacy.

And I will tell you right now: in the Congress, there will be no better friend to the oil and gas industry in Alaska than I,” he said.

It was the first forum of the year for the two candidates, and the first since Peltola won more than 50% of the vote in last week’s primary. Begich trailed with 27%, but it was enough to convince the third-place finisher, Lt. Gov Nancy Dahlstrom to bow out, to focus Republican support on one lead candidate.

Begich repeatedly called out Peltola for being a Democrat, casting her as being in league with the Biden-Harris administration, and other high-profile Democrats.

“Remember,” he said, “the most important vote that a member takes is for the speaker of the House, and when Mary Peltola votes for the speaker of the House to be a Democrat, she’s signing us up for the Democrat agenda.”

Peltola emphasized her work across the aisle, including as a member of the Congressional Western Caucus.

“Western caucus is 106 Republicans and me,” she said.

The candidates were given the moderator’s questions in advance and mostly read their responses. Still, a few sparks flew.

Peltola suggested Begich’s run was more about ambition than public service, noting that he’s never served in elected office and initially filed to run against Rep. Young.

Begich needled Peltola about being away for important House votes. That drew a sharp response.

“I have had a series of tragic things happen in my family,” she said, “and my hope is that in the next two years, my mother and my husband don’t die.”

Peltola’s husband died in a plane crash in mid-September of last year, a few months after her mother’s death. Peltola’s congressional attendance record plunged as she spent time attending funerals and supporting her children and other family members.

Begich and Peltola will appear on the November ranked choice ballot with Republican Matthew Salisbury and John Wayne Howe of the Alaska Independence Party.

On Friday, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom withdrew from the race for Alaska’s U.S. House seat after finishing third in early results for the statewide primary election.

Though a surprise to some observers, her action is part of a larger trend this year: In some races with multiple Republicans, candidates are withdrawing in order to consolidate support behind a single Republican.

It’s a response to the party’s experience two years ago, strategists and candidates say.

In 2022, Democratic U.S. House candidate Mary Peltola defeated Republicans Nick Begich and Sarah Palin. Part of that defeat was due to the fact that many Begich voters either failed to rank anyone second or chose Peltola after Begich was eliminated.

Republicans won several ranked choice legislative elections by narrow margins, but in those races, many Republican voters declined to rank a second Republican, leading to significant numbers of “exhausted” ballots that didn’t contribute to the final margin.

The Republican Party attempted to convince voters to “Rank the Red” in a pre-election campaign, but in the two years since the last election, that approach has been discarded by a significant number of Republicans.

They’re now trying to recreate the state’s old primary elections system — in which only one candidate from a particular party advances to the general election — through voluntary withdrawals.

That strategy is showing up in races where multiple conservative Republicans are running alongside a single Democrat or moderate Republican.

How Alaska votes

In Alaska’s election system, all candidates for an office, regardless of political party, are placed in the same primary election. Voters pick one candidate, and the four candidates with the most votes advance to the general election.

In the general election, voters are asked to rank the candidates in order of preference, one through four, with a fifth option for a write-in, if wanted.

If a candidate receives more than half of the first-preference votes, they win.

If no one receives more than half of the first-preference votes, the lowest finisher is eliminated, and voters who picked that candidate have their votes go for their second preference.

The elimination process continues until one candidate has more than half of the remaining votes.

Presidential elections do not have a top-four primary. Voters in November may be asked to rank more than four candidates for president.

The same day that Dahlstrom withdrew, incumbent Rep. Tom McKay, R-Anchorage, announced that he would be withdrawing from the election for an Anchorage state Senate seat despite finishing second.

McKay and former Republican state Rep. Liz Vazquez are each challenging Sen. Matt Claman, D-Anchorage.

“Me and Liz aren’t that far apart, and I’m a believer — especially after my 2022 race, that having two Republicans in there is not helpful,” McKay said. “And I think Liz really wanted to stay in the race, so I decided I’ll drop out, and I’m going to look for other opportunities.”

Two years ago, McKay trailed Democratic candidate Denny Wells among voters’ first preferences but won after the ranked choice tabulation sent a fellow Republican’s second-choice votes his way.

That fellow Republican, David Eibeck, got 1,039 votes, and McKay was listed as a second choice on 644 of those ballots. Wells was the second choice for 92 voters. On 303 ballots — almost a third of Eibeck’s voters — there was no second choice, and the ballots were exhausted, not counting for either remaining candidate.

“That tells me right there that you can’t force people to do this ranking business. Some of them, they’re just not going to do it,” McKay said.

He won his race, but he thinks it was closer than it should have been. Under Alaska’s old elections system, only one Republican and one Democrat would have advanced from the primary to the general election, and McKay thinks those Eibeck voters would have gone for him.

This year, his chief of staff, Trevor Jepsen, encouraged candidates to sign pre-election pledges saying that they would drop out if they weren’t the top Republican in the primary.

“The data doesn’t lie; due to exhausted ballots, ‘Rank the Red’ is a losing strategy in tight races,” Jepsen said. “‘One Race, One Republican’ should be the strategy, and it’s good to see our Republican candidates understanding that.”

More withdrawals are expected ahead of the Sept. 2 deadline, but some candidates aren’t waiting.

In the race for Eagle River’s state Senate seat, former Republican Rep. Sharon Jackson has withdrawn and endorsed Jared Goecker, the leading conservative Republican challenger to incumbent moderate Republican Sen. Kelly Merrick.

Jackson is running fifth, but her withdrawal means that if another trailing candidate withdraws, there will be no replacement.

In House District 36, which covers much of Interior Alaska, Republican Cole Snodgress is running third in a six-person race, enough to advance to the general election. But because he’s behind fellow Republican Rebecca Schwanke, he’s withdrawing from the contest.

“Instead of trying to stay in and split up the vote going into the general election, I made that commitment up front with District 36,” he said by phone on Monday. “I said, ‘Hey, if I don’t take first, I’m going to get out of the way and get behind one candidate going into the general election.’”

He’s already sent his withdrawal paperwork into the Division of Elections, he said.

“We both had our fair shot at it, and this is the way that people spoke on it, and we’re just going back to that traditional primary process that we had, except you have to do it through self governance,” Snodgress said.

It isn’t yet clear whether Snodgress’ move will accomplish what he wants. Republican Dana Mock is running fifth in the balloting and didn’t immediately answer a phone call about his intentions.

If Mock doesn’t withdraw, he’ll slide into fourth, leaving the ballot full for the general election.

Rep. Jesse Sumner, R-Wasilla, also announced his withdrawal from the general election last week, but for family reasons rather than strategy.

Sumner supports the current elections system and said it’s not beneficial to have it become a partisan issue.

He thinks it’s a mistake for Republicans to rely on strategic withdrawals ahead of the general election.

“People see that people don’t rank, but that doesn’t mean that they would have voted for the other candidate, or even showed up to vote, or voted downballot if the other candidate was there,” he said. “Oftentimes, they might just not like that other person, you know?”