Fisheries

Alaska communities could better adjust to climate change if hunting and fishing rules become more flexible.

Craig Fleener, Gov. Bill Walker’s special assistant on Arctic policy, says northern Native peoples had the ability to adapt before western-style government took over.

“A thousand years ago, if the caribou didn’t come, you killed a moose. If the caribou that should have come to your community three weeks ago, two weeks ago, one week ago, today, weren’t there, well, you harvested them next week,” he says.

Fleener says more regulations defining seasons and bag limits need to be adaptable.

“We don’t do it enough. It’s very tough, especially with the rigid management structures that we have. But I think that’s something we really have to focus on. And I think at some point in time, we all have to come together and talk about how we’re going to continue to adapt to the changes that are around us,” he says.

Fleener made his comments to the Native American Fish and Wildlife Society, which is holding its annual convention in Juneau this week.

Fleener is Gwich’in Athabascan from Fort Yukon. He’s a former deputy commissioner of Alaska’s Department of Fish and Game. He also was Walker’s running mate before his independent campaign merged with Democrat Byron Mallott’s.

Fleener urged tribal and other representatives at the convention to educate themselves about Arctic issues.

The United States this year took over chairmanship of the Arctic Council, an eight-nation coalition. Fleener says that’s good. But decisions about the region should be made by the people who live there.

“We need to have a voice. Alaska really has not had a voice on the international front when it comes to decision-making at the Arctic Council,” he says.

The council does include representatives of northern indigenous groups. Fleener, for example, has chaired a council of Gwich’ins from Alaska and Canada.

Scientists are watching for how a warmer North Pacific Ocean could affect weather and climate this year. There could also be significant impacts to marine life, including species that form the basis for Alaska’s commercial fisheries.

A conference at California’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography earlier this month featured scientists in fields ranging from avian biology to Arctic climatology. They tried to determine the potential impacts of a giant mass of warm, ocean water that currently stretches from the Gulf of Alaska down to Baja California.

Temperatures have increased more than two degrees Celsius since the fall of 2013.

“I know. It doesn’t seem like very much,” says Molly McCammon of the Alaska Ocean Observing System, an observing and data gathering organization based in Anchorage. “But for species that live in the ocean, it’s a big deal. One degree C is a big deal. So, yes, it can have a big impact.”

McCammon helped organize the Alaska contingent that participated in the California conference on the warm water anomaly that’s been nicknamed “The Blob”. The mass of warm ocean water may be a factor in Alaska’s recent mild winters, dry conditions along the West Coast, and extreme cold conditions in the Great Lakes region last winter. It’s not the same as El Niño which has its origins in the equatorial ocean, and it’s not clear if The Blob is related to Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a longer-term cycle of ocean climate variability. The Blob’s formation may have been generated by a lingering high pressure system over the Northeast Pacific that diverted winds and passing storm systems. As a result, the ocean surface did not have the chance to cool off as usual.

“I think the consensus was that, yes, this is an unusual warming event. It’s above and beyond just the warming that’s happening as a result of global warming,” McCammon says. “There also seems to be an El Niño forming right now as well. They think that’s separate, but it could be merging, exacerbating this warming event. So, there‘s a lot of unknowns.”

The relationship between the ocean and atmosphere is complex, and interactions are rarely linear or sequential. Ocean surface temperature, surface and subsurface currents, atmospheric pressure, winds, temperature, precipitation, and geography may all be linked in some way. How each condition influences another could vary significantly.

“That’s actually what we’re trying to figure out at the moment: What or how (are) things might be linked to The Blob,” says Peter Bieniek, a post-doctoral fellow at the University of Alaska Fairbanks’ International Arctic Research Center. He was one of the Alaska scientists invited to attend the SIO conference.

“Normally, there are linkages to what goes on in the North Pacific, and especially the equatorial Pacific,” Bieniek says. “Sea surface temperatures, like if there’s an El Niño going on in the equatorial Pacific, then we’ll tend to get, for instance, warmer-than-normal winters in Alaska.”

Bieniek expects the higher ocean temperatures will persist for the rest of the year. The longer view, however, is difficult to predict.

Scientists believe the layer of warm surface water extends to a depth of a hundred meters. The boundary acts as a barrier and can hinder up-and-down movement of phytoplankton through the water column. The tiny, light-sensitive marine organisms form the base of the ocean food chain.

Jamal Moss, fisheries research biologist for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Auke Bay, says the prognosis is good so far for juvenile Alaska salmon now heading out to the open ocean. This year’s juvenile pinks, for example, are the biggest ever and have the largest lipid or fat reserves.

“So, big fish that have lots of energy tend to survive better,” Moss says. “Right now, all signs are point to good conditions for at least the Alaska stocks.”

Moss, another Alaska scientist to attend the conference, specializes in juvenile salmon and juvenile marine fish ecology.

“This might be a boon for fish,” Moss says. “It might actually help them.”

“At least in the short term because it appears that the zooplankton that juvenile fish are eating is abundant, as well as high in energy and fat,” Moss says. “Even though there are a whole new suite of predators – host of predators – that are in these waters potentially preying upon them as well, it seems like they’re going to do well.”

Unusual marine sightings in high latitudes include blue and thresher sharks, pomfret, and sunfish. Those are species that usually congregate in warmer waters.

Moss says scientists have also detected an increase in juvenile sablefish or black cod offshore of Alaska. But they don’t know yet whether it’s related to the warm water event or if it’s a coincidence.

As for the West Coast, Moss says it may be a mixed-bag of conditions for those species already in warmer water.

McCammon says scientists are already planning summer research to find out how and why the warm water mass stretched out along the West Coast and determine any potential impacts on species. A follow-up conference to compare notes is tentatively planned for late fall.

And, they’re off! This season’s first batch of salmon fry will soon be entering the open ocean with lots of food and plenty of predators. Some will be back in a few years to spawn, others will be back as soon as next year after they swim a giant counterclockwise circle of the North Pacific.

But fisheries biologists wonder about one salmon run that just left Juneau’s Auke Creek earlier than ever before. And they’re curious about how a new, large mass of warm ocean water will affect those young salmon as they grow up.

“It’s good to separate them because the little fish don’t like being in with the big fish,” says John Joyce, a fisheries research biologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, who points out the various cages for separating outgoing fry and smolt at the Auke Creek weir.

“There’s physical characteristics on the shape of their fins and the shape of their eyes, and their coloration,” Joyce says. “You have the ability to tell them apart. But it does take some time to get your eye educated because we do rely on that to separate out the species.”

On the last day of April 2015, he counted just one pink salmon passing out of the weir. The tiny, inch-long fry is a straggler. Most of his or her 14,175 siblings have been hanging out in Auke Bay before venturing into the open ocean.

Based on data collected over the last 35 years at the weir, Joyce says Auke Creek’s out migration of pink fry is one of the lowest on record and two weeks ahead of schedule. Joyce suspects that recent mild winters and climate change are behind the subtle, yet steady trend of earlier pink migrations.

But Joyce is not so sure about another relatively new phenomenon of a huge, evolving, moving mass of warm ocean water in the eastern North Pacific.

Washington state climatologist Nicholas Bond, who nicknamed it “The Blob”, says they’re not quite sure how it will affect Alaska salmon, but he believes it’ll be bad news for Lower 48 salmon since the warmer water attracts less nutritious prey species.

“We do know that in 2014, because of that warm water, that the base of the food web production of phytoplankton that supports the whole food web was reduced because that warm water served to isolate the near surface waters from the more-nutrient rich water below,” Bond says.

Over the last two winters, The Blob has moved and stretched out along the West Coast from the Gulf of Alaska down to Baja California. That’s right in the counterclockwise path of pink salmon coming home this year. How will they be affected? For the answer, Joyce refers to a prognosticating colleague at NOAA’s Ted Stevens Marine Research Institute whom he calls ‘Joestradamus’.

Research fisheries biologist Joe Orsi says they’re cautiously optimistic about a strong run of about 55 million fish this year. Those pinks will be the children of 2013’s big return. But they’ll be running through The Blob as they approach the Oregon shore and start heading north.

“The implications of climate change on fish species is important, for them all,” Orsi says.

“Salmon will be first ones reporting back to us if there’s a problem out there,” Orsi says. “We’ll know this year if the warm blob of 2014 caused something terrible to happen to the pink salmon because they’re just basically not going to return in high numbers this year.”

Pink salmon or humpies usually don’t get a lot of love. They’re physically smaller than the other four Pacific salmon species. But they’re still a major part of the Southeast Alaska commercial salmon industry, worth $124 million during 2013’s blockbuster season. They’re also ecologically important with the fry serving as food for their larger Chinook and Coho cousins. Bears, eagles, and marine mammals like whales will go for the adult humpies.

Orsi also wonders about those pink fry heading out from Auke Creek earlier this spring. He uses the term “mismatch” to describe how the out-of-sync fry may wander around and wait for their zooplankton breakfast to show up.

“If they can’t grow, they spend more time in the near shore, the littoral zone near the beach, when they’re small,” Orsi says. “They’re more vulnerable to predators, both avian and fish predators. They need to grow to a certain size before they actually start moving off shore and migrate out into open waters.”

And how will The Blob affect those out migrating, still developing pinks? Orsi says salmon will grow faster in slightly warmer water, but they’ll also need more food. And the warmer water could attract other unusual species and potential predators like blue shark and thresher shark, and Humboldt squid.

Joyce says they won’t be getting any quick and easy answers about the effects of The Blob. They’ll also have to consider other ecosystem factors.

“It’s all very interesting how these populations can optimize their productivity over time, be successful, and continue to deal with changing environmental conditions,” Joyce says.

“They have the ability to adapt and to change their behavior,” Joyce says. “At what point is it too much or too little?”

Biologists may find a few clues about the effects of warm ocean water when the first pink salmon from the 2013 brood year begin returning home to Auke Creek in August.

The first fishing restrictions on the Kuskokwim River are expected to go into effect on May 21^st as managers are expecting another poor king salmon run. With the lessons learned from 2014, managers hope to bring enough king salmon to spawning grounds and allow for limited fishing along the way.

For the second year in a row, federal staff will manage day-to-day fishing on the Kuskokwim River from the mouth to Aniak.

Neil LaLonde is the refuge manager and in-season manager during the chinook run. He says many people have bought their nets over the winter, and will be ready to fish.

“We feel that if we didn’t go to some type of schedule that harvest should be much greater with the sheer amount of additional 4-inch nets that are available on the river,” said LaLonde.

Managers will close fishing to all but federal qualified subsistence users – that is people who live in communities on or near the Kuskokwim, a provision that’s unique to federal management. Sport fishing will be closed.

A new set of gill net closures is anticipated for several tributaries. As of June 7th, there will be no gill net fishing on the Kwethluk, Kisaralik, Kasigluk, and Tuluksak rivers.

“Those tributaries have not done well specifically in this drainage over the last several years,” LaLonde said.

LaLonde says subsistence fishing is open now with no restrictions on gear until the first closures begin on the lower river on May 21st. He’s planned extensive engagement with the tribes and the recently established Kuskokwim River Inter-Tribal Fisheries Commission and continued work with the state, which runs many of the rivers’ monitoring projects.

The run is forecast to be slightly better than 2014, which saw the lowest subsistence take of king salmon on record, but conservation and making escapement will remain the top priority.

NOAA Fisheries is seeking public comment on a draft recovery plan for Cook Inlet beluga whales.

According to a release from NOAA, the plan will structure efforts to bring the whales back up to a healthy population size. Once there, the hope is to remove them from the federal endangered species list.

The plan includes a list of criteria that would have to be met to take the whales off the list and declare them a recovered species.

Jim Balsiger is the regional administrator for NOAA. He says the plan was made with the best available science.

It focuses on ten types of threats to the population and assesses the severity of each threat.

They include natural disasters, oil spills, mass strandings, noise pollution, and other stressors, both natural and human-caused.

Cook Inlet beluga whales have been on the endangered species list since 2008. Since 2011, the inlet has been designated a critical habitat for the species.

According to NOAA Fisheries, the population is estimated to be only 340 animals and there has been a steady decline in the species over the last decade.

The Native American Fish and Wildlife Society meets in Juneau May 20-22.

Tribal and other government officials and staff will discuss climate change, subsistence, Arctic policy and dozens of other issues.

Norman Jojola is natural resource manager for the Bureau of Indian Affairs’ Northern Pueblos Agency in New Mexico. He’s also one of the conference’s planners.

He says the conference will address the role of traditional knowledge in resource management.

“A lot of the Western knowledge tends to have them tell you what a certain species wants, what a certain species needs, this is how they’re going to survive,” he says. “Instead … traditional knowledge would go out, look at the species, live with the species and let the species tell you what it wants rather than you telling it what it’s supposed to do.”

Some sessions will focus on fish hatchery operations and lead ammunition poisoning wildlife. Others will cover more recent issues, such as policing fracking and dealing with meth labs.

Another focus area is cooperative management.

Jojola says that’s important when tribes share borders.

“These animals have no sense of boundaries. And they’re going to move wherever they want to move and whenever they want to move. It’s always good that you have this cooperative effort in managing these resources because if you don’t, then you’re just fighting each other,” he says.

The society began in the 1980s as a way to share information. That includes educating tribal youth about resource issues.