Weather

As the remnants of a typhoon were set to slam western Alaska, Gov. Mike Dunleavy issued a disaster declaration Thursday for communities hit by a powerful storm earlier in the week.

The state Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management said in a press release that flooding and storm surge damaged homes and infrastructure during Wednesday’s storm. Kotzebue was under a mandatory evacuation, which has since been lifted. According to officials, there are no reports of injuries at this time.

Carter MacKay is a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. He said initial forecasts overestimated tide levels by one to two feet, which was good for low-lying communities like Kotzebue and Shishmaref.

“As an overall trend, there was an abundance of high water and erosion across the west coast with some areas of damage, but it wasn’t widespread impacts,” MacKay said.

The declaration activates public and individual assistance programs across the Bering Strait, Lower Yukon, and Kashunamiut school regions, as well as the Northwest Arctic and North Slope boroughs. Those programs help repair public infrastructure and provide aid to families whose homes were damaged.

State emergency officials are deploying response teams and have requested help from the Alaska National Guard and State Defense Force.

Incident Commander Mark Roberts said in the release that preparations made before the storm helped keep people safe, but warned that more bad weather is on the way. Flood warnings are in effect across western Alaska through Monday as another storm, the remnants of Typhoon Halong, approaches the Bering Sea.

MacKay said the weather service is already shifting its focus to the upcoming storm.

“It’s looking a little bit worse in terms of really strong winds gusted about 70 to 80 miles an hour,” MacKay said. “So wind gusts could be even stronger with this next one moving in, which could lead to potentially more significant coastal impacts.”

Residents are urged to stay alert, follow local instructions and keep emergency plans ready.

The city of Kotzebue is under mandatory evacuation orders. That’s as the community prepares for flooding the National Weather Service warns could be worse than last year’s flood, which led to dozens of evacuations and two families losing their homes.

Flooding had already begun by Wednesday afternoon, and the Weather Service forecast said water could rise as high as 10 feet above the high tide line. Flood waters are expected to peak around 8 p.m. Wednesday night.

The city said Wednesday afternoon that the mandatory evacuation was issued to assist elders and to prepare residents to evacuate before dark. On Tuesday night, 28 residents stayed at Kotzebue Middle High School, which is the local evacuation point.

Kotzebue mayor Derek Haviland-Lie said first responders might not be able to reach people’s homes during the worst of the flooding.

“There may be a point, sometimes within the next 24 to 48 hours, that emergency services might not be able to make it to your home,” he said. “If that is the case, if you don’t go to the shelter, you’re going to have to shelter in place.”

As of this afternoon, barricades had been set up on the road past the airport and in other vulnerable areas of town. Haviland-Lie says the community should be prepared for power outages to several areas around town – including the airport area. Flights in and out of Kotzebue are also canceled.

“They’re worried about the water getting into their transformers that are out in the airport area. So there is going to be at some point where at least the airport is going to be without power. They have no choice,” he said.

The Kotzebue Electric Association is asking residents to report all outages and says that crews will respond when conditions are safe.

Flooding has already been reported in multiple sections of town including Front Street and the areas near Kotzebue’s airport and hospital. School is canceled Thursday. Both the city and borough closed early on Wednesday for non-essential workers.

The state also issued a notice Wednesday afternoon that it had activated its emergency operations center in preparation for a series of storms that are set to hit Western Alaska through the weekend. Kotzebue and other communities, including Kivalina, Shishmaref, Golovin, and Nunam Iqua, are expected to be among the hardest hit.

Residents in other Northwest Arctic communities have also reported that they’ve begun evacuating in preparation for the flooding. Kivalina residents are evacuating to higher ground at the school, located seven miles from the community.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

Hurricane-force winds are expected to hit central and southern Southeast Alaska late Thursday into Friday with gusts up to 80 miles per hour. Seas along the outer coast in the Gulf of Alaska could reach 35 feet.

Jeff Garmon is a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Juneau. He said residents in the region should prepare.

“These winds, making landfall, they will do damage, they will push trees over, and we could see some damage to structures,” Garmon said. “Especially for folks from Sitka South, really ought to be paying very close attention to this.”

The storm is supposed to make landfall along southern Baranof Island and Prince of Wales Island Thursday night and then get stronger early Friday. Garmon said residents in other areas should also stay alert.

“Those winds extend well out to the east, well to the north, well to the south and west of where that center of circulation comes in,” he said. “So, this is not just an immediate coastal threat for wind. Those winds will eventually move inland and the Inside Passage needs to be watching.”

The windstorm is supposed to dissipate over the weekend, and Monday could see a few peeks of sun.

“Sunday, Monday looks a lot more benign, but we’re still going to have some weather around. We may get some breaks on Monday in the weather. So, let’s say the glass is half full for Monday.”

The National Weather Service in Juneau is posting weather updates to their social media accounts, and public radio stations in the region are also giving forecast updates on their airwaves.

Editor’s note: This story has been updated to include the increased winds and seas predicted by the National Weather Service.

It’s officially autumn, and with the season comes more stormy weather. The National Weather Service issued a high wind warning and flood watch for Juneau Monday.

Meteorologists say wind gusts could reach 60 miles per hour. Gales are forecast to peak between 11 a.m. and 2 p.m. and then subside around 4 p.m. The National Weather Service advises residents to secure vessels and loose objects that could be blown around or damaged by the wind. 

Forecasters expect one to three inches of rainfall in Juneau Monday. That could cause minor flooding in low-lying areas near creeks and rivers following heavy rain over the weekend. The flood watch will last overnight, until 4 a.m. Tuesday.

Andrew Park, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Juneau, said people should pay attention to the weather and plan accordingly. 

“The weather today will impact your life, especially if you’re trying to get on the water,” he said. “We’re starting to see 50 to 60 mile an hour gusts.”

Park also explained how the air flows into the steep terrain to create persistent rainfall.

“You have this moist southwest flow, and that just continues to feed against the mountains,” he said. “So the mountains act as a source of like a lifting mechanism, and just drives showers.”

On Saturday, the City & Borough of Juneau closed Auke Lake Trail. The city reported that heavy rainfall triggered landslides in the area. City staff urge residents to stay off the trail and out of the lake until it reopens. 

Ryan O’Shaughnessy is the city’s emergency program manager. He encourages those living in landslide-prone areas to be mindful of the weather forecast. 

“If anyone who lives on a steep slope does observe any downslope movement of soils or trees — definitely the best thing to do is to get out of the area — then, once you’re safe, to call 911.”

The National Weather Service will issue updates on its website. If there is a weather-related emergency, O’Shaughnessy said the city will send text notifications through its voluntary alert system. 

This story has been updated. 

A storm moving through Southeast Alaska is causing high winds that will continue into Wednesday evening in Juneau. It’s resulting in power outages and fallen trees. Multiple cruise ships have canceled port calls.

The National Weather Service issued a high wind warning early Wednesday morning, which is in effect until 7 p.m. Brian Bezenek, the lead meteorologist at the Juneau NWS office, said sensors have reported gusts reaching up to 60 miles per hour downtown.

“We’ve got some very gusty and strong winds moving through the area that have been knocking down a few trees here and there, as well as some other minor damage around town,” he said.

Three cruise ships that were scheduled to arrive in Juneau canceled their stops ahead of the storm Tuesday night. One ship, the Caribbean Princess, chose to stay in Juneau overnight and remains in port this afternoon. The Viking Orion cruise ship was scheduled to arrive in Sitka today, but instead diverted course to Juneau due to the winds.

Matt Creswell, the city’s harbormaster, said local tugboats helped the ship moor this afternoon.

“All cruise ships visiting Juneau are able to have tugs on standby at any time they want,” he said. “That’s a common thing that if you need a tug, it’s always manned and ready to go if the ships need it.”

Alaska Electric Light & Power reported an areawide outage due to downed trees across town. The City of Hoonah also reported outages.

Bezenek said the heavy winds are expected to head north and through Juneau later this evening.

“It’s drifting north, and it should be jumping inland across the mountain range through today,” he said. “We’ll probably have the gusty winds in the Juneau area continue for another couple hours, and then we’ll see this wind band probably pushed north through the Lynn canal area.”

The Juneau School District reported at noon that all schools have been impacted by the power outage, but classes are continuing as regularly scheduled.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates. 

Alaskans and, really, the rest of the world can expect a La Niña climate pattern this winter.

That could mean a potentially cooler-than-average winter.

According to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, there’s a 71 percent chance of a La Niña setting in by October. The center updated its forecast Friday from essentially a coin flip chance to now saying a La Niña is more likely than not.

What that means for Alaska is still unclear, National Weather Service climate researcher Brian Brettschneider said.

“It, historically, would generally mean cooler falls in Alaska and cooler winters. That hasn’t worked out the last couple of times,” Brettschneider said. “And so I like to say that it puts the thumb on the scale, but sometimes that thumb slips off the scale and it just doesn’t work out.”

That’s not just because the Earth’s climate is warmer now than it used to be. A La Niña only accounts for some of the variability across an entire winter. Other things – like increased tropical cyclone activity, sea ice distribution or a polar vortex – can overwhelm that, Brettschneider said.

And even though La Niña winters tend to favor drier conditions, they sometimes produce more snow in Alaska.

“If you have the same amount of precipitation, but it’s colder, then you get more snow,” Brettschneider said. “You’re converting more of the would-be rain into snow. And then also, generally, when it’s colder, to a point, you get more efficient snow crystal production, and so you get fluffier snow.”

In Anchorage, one of the top three snowiest winters on record was a La Niña, while another was its counterpart El Niño, which tends to produce warmer, wetter winters.

And, Brettschneider said, the warmest winter on record in Alaska was during a La Niña. So the climate prediction can’t say what will happen, only what is likely to happen, he said.