KFSK - Petersburg

The Alaska Department of Fish and Game is forecasting a commercial catch of 23 million pink salmon in Southeast Alaska next year.

That would be down from this year but would come close to historical averages. Managers are expecting something similar to the disappointing season of 2016.

However, for the first time in a decade, next year’s forecast is not adjusted using survey data from outgoing young pink salmon because of unusually low numbers.

The state agency comes up with a forecast based on an average of the annual catch for even or odd years.

For the past decade, that forecast has been adjusted using the results of an annual trawl survey done by staff at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Alaska Auke Bay lab in Juneau.

“Starting in 2007 ADF&G has been incorporating their information into our forecasts and adjusting our simple trend forecast and that’s greatly improved our forecast performance in recent years,” said Andy Piston, Fish and Game’s pink and chum salmon project leader for Southeast.

“This year we took that data and what we found is their juvenile pink salmon abundance index was the lowest we’ve ever seen,” Piston said, adding, “it was only about a quarter of the previous low value. And because of that when we used methods similar to what we’ve used in past years in some cases it gave us negative forecasts and in other cases it just gave us extremely low, single digit forecasts.”

That NOAA trawl survey captures young pink salmon leaving streams from the inside waters of the northern panhandle.

The results this year were the lowest in the 21 years of that survey.

Piston explains Fish and Game forecasters opted to leave that adjustment out of the calculation for 2018.

Instead they reverted to their old method of an average of recent past even year catches.

The 23 million pink forecast would be down from this year’s 34 million but it would be an improvement from the parent year, 2016.

That year the catch was nearly 18 and a half million with very little harvest on northern Southeast inside waters.

Openings were limited in that part of the region as managers sought to meet goals for fish returning to spawn and some seiners ended their season early because of the disappointing pink run.

That could be the case again next year.

“If you look at the return next year based on this NOAA data and other information we have, it looks very probable that they’ll be very little harvest on northern Southeast inside waters,” Piston said. “And I think the real uncertainty is what will return to southern Southeast.”

Piston said Fish and Game plans to use the trawl survey data to adjust its forecast in the future just not this year.

Pink salmon runs are difficult to forecast because, unlike other species, they don’t have different ages returning in the same year – adults are all 2-year-olds.

There’s also not a great correlation between how many fish spawn one year and how many survive in the ocean and return to spawn two years later. Southeast’s catch has fluctuated dramatically.

Pinks are targeted mainly by the region’s purse seine fleet and are mostly canned or frozen.

NOAA Fisheries releases its own harvest forecast later in the year.

A task force comprised of fishery managers and seine industry representatives meets from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Tuesday, November 28, at the Ted Ferry Civic Center in Ketchikan.

One of only 26 bills passed by the legislature this year, Senate Bill 28 got the governor’s signature last week. It increases a state land allotment for the Petersburg borough to more than 14,000 acres.

Just a couple dozen people turned out to witness a big moment in the short history of the new borough, formed nearly five years ago. Gov. Bill Walker was on hand to sign the legislation that passed in May.

“You know my background is local government,” Walker said. “Anything that I can do I see come through that involves helping local government do a better job of what they’re doing, more land, anything, I’m very excited about that.”

One of Petersburg’s arguments for the land increase was that the property will help the municipal government become more self-sufficient.

Ninety-six percent of the borough is untaxable National Forest Land, with other small percentages already granted to the Alaska Mental Health Trust, Southeast state forest and the University of Alaska, along with Goldbelt Inc., an urban Native corporation based in Juneau.

Only three-tenths of a percent is in private hands, generating property tax for the borough but this bill could increase that.

Sam Bunge, a retired land surveyor for the U.S. Forest Service, served on the committee charged with choosing which lands to select. The committee prioritized a shorter list but will have to go back and add to their choices.

“We were hopeful but no we didn’t quite imagine it would happen so smoothly and so soon,” Bunge said. “But yeah this is nice. There’s a lot of interesting state parcels out there for the borough to select.”

As for land that piques his interest, Bunge mentioned some on Mitkof Island about 10 miles south of Petersburg.

“I’m looking at Falls Creek,” he said. “There’s two half sections down there along the creek and the road that are state, unappropriated land, fairly level, got the creek in it, road access, looks ideal for future development.”

The committee’s shorter list, totaling 1,321 acres, focused on economic development land, for instance several rock pits and waterfront parcels near existing boat ramps or other facilities.

Those parcels are at Cape Fanshaw and Thomas Bay on the mainland, on southern Mitkof Island near little Blind Slough and around Woodpecker Cove as well as eastern Mitkof at Frederick Point.

Other top choices are in Kupreanof Island’s Duncan Canal and at Frederick Point on Mitkof Island.

Sitka Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins sponsored the House version of the bill and is thrilled to see it become law.

“It’s a big win for Petersburg,” Kreiss-Tomkins said. “It was a good example of collaboration and getting through I would argue common sense legislation in a year that didn’t see a lot of successes on that front.”

With belt tightening at the local level, the additional state land can help. Although borough manager Steve Giesbrecht cautioned it’s help that will come many years down the road.

“A lot of this land, it’s long-term propositions,” Giesbrecht said. “It can’t immediately be turned into cash to run the borough, but it is clearly an asset that can be used for development for quality of life things and future revenue potential streams for the borough, so again, not right away but over time this is pretty valuable.”

Petersburg’s mayor Mark Jensen noted that Petersburg residents have some historic ties to some of the parcels.

“There some areas like Fanshaw, Cape Fanshaw area that’s kinda historical for Petersburg, used to be a fox farm there and a post office,” Jensen said. “In fact my grandmother, Willie, worked there when my mom and Jean Thynes, her sister, were around their 18-ish years so. That’s a pretty special place.”

So did the governor have any heartburn increasing the land allotment for Petersburg while the state struggles under huge budget deficits? Doesn’t sound like it.

“Really, Petersburg is increasing the opportunities for Petersburg,” Walker said when asked that question. “The good work by Senator Stedman, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins to make this happen. One of my jobs is to make sure that everybody has every tool to make their area successful and so if that means land being transferred to them that they’re entitled to, I’m only too happy to do that. And again I don’t wanna take too much credit myself for this because a lot of the work was obviously done by Senator Stedman and Representative Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. I’m just happy to be part of it. It’s certainly a bill that I supported and one that I was very, very happy to sign and very happy to sign it in Petersburg.”

Petersburg’s community and economic development director Liz Cabrera and the borough’s lobbyist in Juneau Ray Matiashowski worked to get the bill through the legislature.

Both were on hand for the signing.

The actual transfer of parcels from the Department of Natural Resources to the borough is expected to take years.