Weather

Gale-force winds and high seas on the outer coast are keeping about 4,500 cruise ship travelers from seeing Sitka this week.

Three Holland America Line ships – the Westerdam, the Amsterdam and the Maasdam – have canceled their port calls.

Sherry Aitken is director of tourism for Visit Sitka, which is part of the Greater Sitka Chamber of Commerce.

“Largely, it’s because they have to go on the outside of Baranof Island. They cannot take the path of the ferries, through the interisland areas. And so, they’re exposed to any type of heavy seas and right now it’s tremendously heavy seas,” she said.

The ships were scheduled for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of this week.

Two ships are still scheduled to call in Sitka before the end of this month. The Norwegian Jewel is slated to stop on Saturday and the Westerdam next Wednesday.

Aitken hopes the weather will allow them to sail and bring passengers to Sitka shops and tours.

“September is a time when you’ve probably made your costs for the season and you’re looking at expanding your margin of profitably,” she said.

Weather cancellations aren’t all that unusual this time of year in Sitka. Storms kept the 380-passenger Silver Shadow from calling on Sept. 10. Three years ago, two of the larger ships also skipped Sitka at the end of the season.

“I think it’s always disappointing that we don’t have the potential guests here. And it’s great when we can finish up September strong. But for Sitka, it is really weather dependent,” she said.

Alaska is seeing just over 1 million cruise ship passengers this season. But only 12 percent of them visit Sitka. Tourism officials expect that number to climb next year when Holland America and Celebrity have planned additional calls in Sitka.

The first large storm of the season is expected to hit Southcentral Alaska later today, peaking overnight and early Wednesday.

Forecasters say that parts of Southcentral Alaska could see hurricane-force wind gusts of up to 100 mph and heavy rain starting tonight.

Dave Snider, a meteorologist with National Weather Service Alaska, says people should avoid travel during the storm.

“Probably a good rule of thumb for most people anywhere in South Central Alaska would be to get there and stay there. It’s just going to be pretty tough to move around,” said Snider.

High Wind warnings are in effect for the eastern Kenai Peninsula and the Anchorage area while storm warnings have been issued for Kachemak Bay and surrounding areas.

Sustained winds of 50 miles per hour are expected around Homer and along the Sterling Highway corridor with possible stronger isolated gusts.

“You’re going to experience horizontal rainfall at some point in the day, that’s how windy it will be,” said Snider.

Those flying or on the water are going to experience very rough conditions, says Snider.

“Gale warnings are up for Cook Inlet, south of Kalgin Island and we have storm warnings out over the Barrens. Gusts around Homer and the Sterling Highway corridor may reach upwards of about 50 miles per hour. But we do expect there are going to be some isolated gust that will be considerably stronger and we are thinking right now that those winds coming in from the south and east will create a pretty substantial low-level wind shear and turbulence for aviators moving around and again being out on the water is going to be pretty rough,” said Snider.

Snider says this is the kind of storm that could blow things away if they are not secured.

“You might want to bring the trash barrels a little bit closer to the house. If you still have the patio umbrella up, you might want to consider taking that down fairly quickly because things like that will become airborne fairly easily with stronger southeasterly gusts,” said Snider.

He adds that it is also time to secure airplanes and boats and to take other precautions.

“Folks that normally tie up their airplanes and tie up their boats in big weather system this may be the day to do it. And in some cases it would not be surprising to see potential tree damage in some areas with some of those stronger gusts. If those are concerns for folks in preparation, then first thing Tuesday during the day before it really picks up in the afternoon and evening would be a wise time to take a break and go take care of those things.” said Snider.

In addition to the high winds, flood watches are in effect from Seward north to Whittier, from Tuesday night into Thursday, with 5 to 7 inches of rainfall projected in a 12 to 18 hour period.

Forecasters have said that this storm appears to be stronger than the one that moved through Southcentral Alaska earlier this month, which took down trees and knocked out power for thousands of customers from Willow to Homer.

The National Weather Service in Juneau issues a flood advisory for the area around Mendenhall Lake and River in the central channels until 3:45 a.m. Friday.

Mendenhall Lake and River were at 8.5 feet at 3:39 p.m. Flood stage is 9 feet.

A water level of 9.4 feet causes minor flooding for yards along View Drive.

At 9.7 feet, water will flow over West Glacier Spur Road between Skaters Cabin and West Glacier Trailhead.

Thousands of unexpected visitors made a stop in Haines today, when an unscheduled cruise ship docked in town this Tuesday morning.

The boat was headed for Skagway, but high winds caused a change of plans.

The ferry dock is crowded and the wind is strong.

It’s a reminder of why the Crown Princess is stopped in Haines and not Skagway. Some passengers walk back and forth to town. Others wait nearby, while tour operators mingle with the crowd.

“We got up early to do some excursions in Skagway,” Damon Patterson. He and Stephanie Patterson are visiting Alaska from Kentucky.

The Patterson’s are enjoying their time in Haines, but disappointed to not be on the White Pass and Yukon Route Railroad as planned.

Haines Tourism Director Leslie Ross said the official call to come to Haines wasn’t made until about 6:30 a.m.

“We were warned a few days ago that they might blow in,” Ross said. “And it’s not a complete surprise. When it gets this windy, sometimes, I mean it’s not the first time it’s happened.”

It’s the first time this year a cruise ship has had to stop in town unexpectedly, though it has happened in previous years.

Still, Ross said this is a larger ship then would normally come to town.

The Crown Princess holds just more than 3,000 passengers.

“So it was dealing with a couple thousand people trying to find places to go this morning,” Ross said.

According to Ross, local tour operators sell tours in both Skagway and Haines, so they were ready to go, but it’s harder to get the word out to shop owners who were expecting a quiet day. An extra cruise ship will bring in a lot of extra money, and Ross said in these situations, usually people end up happy.

“They end up being pleasantly surprised,” Ross said, “and our tour operators jump in and are getting a lot of our folks out but if not they’re just taking our free shuttle downtown and enjoying the area and most people still come back happy.”

The Crown Princess is not the only ship that didn’t make it to Skagway.

Weather also prevented the Nieuw Amsterdam from docking.

Skagway tourism director Cody Jennings said today was supposed to be the last four-ship day of the season.

“What you find out on the streets still though right now is that pretty much all the shops still are open,” Jennings said. “But definitely much lower than we expected today. It’s definitely a quieter day around town.”

With about half the expected visitors, Jennings expected local businesses to take hit.

“We were expecting a little over 10,000 visitors and what we have is just over five (5,000). So for those people that stick it out until the end and want to be here for our visitors, it definitely makes a difference for all of them,” Jennings said. “I expect for all the small businesses as well.”

Still, Jennings says it seems so be business as usual in Skagway, despite the smaller crowd. And she says, this doesn’t happen often enough to be a major concern.

A small landslide blocked Glacier Highway for about an hour Friday afternoon near mile 21. Jeremy Woodrow with the Alaska Department of Transportation said it took about 20 minutes to clear the debris.

“I don’t believe there was any significant damage,” Woodrow said. “There definitely was material put into the ditch and drainage area so we had to do some more work to remove that. But, that’s to be expected when you have some movement of dirt into our ditches. That’s one reason why our ditches are there to catch some of that.”

Woodrow believes the slide was caused by last week’s heavy rains. He said they’re not a frequent occurrence, but it’s possible there will be more slides as the rainy season approaches.

“You do tend to see more slope movements during the fall when we get lots of rain,” Woodrow said. “It saturates the ground and kind of loosens the soil up. You tend to get more slides during that time than at other times of year.”

He cautioned drivers to keep an eye out for slides. He asked anyone who witnesses one to contact the Juneau Police Department. The police will call DOT and they will send crews to clear the road.

Tuesday marked the 200th day in a row of above normal temperatures for Alaska. Even in a string of unusually warm years for the state, that’s a remarkable run.

Brian Brettschneider is a climatologist in Anchorage who closely tracks Alaska climate data and trends. Alaska’s Energy Desk is checking in with him regularly as part of a new segment- Ask a Climatologist.

The daily average statewide temperature is based on an index of 25 cities across Alaska.

Interview transcript
Brian: Individual cities may have a few below normal days sprinkled in here and there, but on the aggregate it’s been above normal every single day of 2016 except for one and that was Feb. 9.

Annie: And how unusual is that?

Brian: The last two years, 2014 and 2015, were the two warmest years on record, dating back to 1925, when they started keeping stats. Each of those two years had at least 60 days that were in the lowest third of temperature categories. And this year we’ve had no days in the lowest third of temperature categories and only one day that was even slightly below the normal. So it’s almost a near certainty that 2016 will be the warmest on record for Alaska.

Annie: And we keep talking about these warm ocean temperature around Alaska. How much is that a factor?

Brian: Well it’s definitely a factor. You’ve got this unlimited reservoir of warm ocean water which facilitates warm temperatures in the air right above that water, so it really acts as a floor for how low temperatures can go.

Annie: And what are you seeing in the August data for those ocean temperatures?

Brian: For the ocean temperatures surrounding Alaska, and I’m talking mainly south- so Gulf of Alaska, Bering Sea- the summer of 2016 was the second warmest on record. Last year was the warmest on record. And 2014 was the third warmest on record. So it really goes to show how anomalously warm the atmosphere and the environment is around Alaska that really is preventing us from having even normal temperatures.